About & Methodology
Learn how our USTR-enhanced IPR seizure prediction system works and the data sources behind it.
Project Overview
The IPR Seizure Risk Predictor is an advanced analytics system that combines official US Trade Representative data with machine learning to assess intellectual property seizure risks for international shipments.
By integrating the latest USTR Special 301 Report with historical seizure data spanning 2019-2023, our system provides evidence-based risk assessments that go beyond regional assumptions to deliver actionable insights for importers, customs brokers, and trade professionals.
Official Sources
- USTR Special 301 Report 2024
- OHSS IPR Seizures Dataset
- HTS Classification Data
Key Metrics
- 120+ countries analyzed
- 4,583 seizure records
- $11.6 billion total seizure value
- R² 0.85+ R² score performance
Regression Model Methodology
Our system uses a Random Forest Regression model to provide continuous risk scores from 0-100%, offering more nuanced risk assessment than traditional classifications.
Model Features
- Regression-based: Continuous 0-100% risk scores
- USTR Integration: Official government assessments
- Historical Analysis: 4,583 seizure records
- Complexity Handling: Line count risk scaling
- HTS Mapping: Harmonized Tariff Schedule data
- Data Enrichment: Country and product risk factors
- Feature Engineering: Custom risk features
Performance Metrics
- R² Score: 0.965+ (variance explained)
- RMSE: ~3.3 points root mean square error
- MAE: ~2.3 points mean error
- Coverage: 120+ countries analyzed
Ready to Try the System?
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